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South Region Preseason XC Rankings 2016 - DyeStatPublished by
South 1s: Keller girls, The Woodlands boys
The South Boys
By Paul Schmitz A pair of large Texas Class 6A schools continued their dominance over the rest of the field in the boys NXN South region and there should be no change in 2016. Returning regional champions and NXN #6 The Woodlands are the preseason No. 1. The Woodlands is coming off a record-setting 10th NXN appearance and number 11 is in sight. In-state rival Southlake Carroll, NXN 16th last year, is the most likely challenger this fall. Southlake Carroll has qualified for NXN for the past six years and they are a clear favorite to take one of the two tickets to Portland from the South. The Longhorn State has claimed 15 of the 17 podium spots in the region since 2010. In fact, just two teams, Southlake Carroll and The Woodlands have claimed 12 of those 17 spots with each team making it to the podium for the last six years. There is a unique situation in small-school Texas where both the 4A and the 3A defending state champions have ALL SEVEN returning to the lineups. Class 4A San Elizario and Class 3A Luling are the clear favorites to repeat as state class champions but they both have distance to make up to compete with the 6A schools. Elsewhere in the region, Rogers is the team to beat in Arkansas. The 2013 and 2014 state champions were knocked off last year by Fayetteville, but Rogers is primed to recapture the crown.
1. The Woodlands TX. The Highlanders lost five of the top seven but return seniors Noah Wells and William Hunsdale, who finished 2-6 in the Texas state meet. They are joined by a solid group of sub-9:45 3200 runners. 2. Southlake Carroll TX. SLC has the runners at the top to compete with The Woodlands, led by Reed Brown, who won the South region last year and finished 14th at NXN. He is also the Texas 3200 champion at 8:50. If the team can complete its line-up behind solid senior returners Nick Fernandes and Charlie Gardner, the 1 and 2 spots in the state and the region could flip-flop. 3. College Park TX. Last years No. 4 finisher in the Texas 6A state meet and NXN South is our favorite for the last podium spot. The team returns four of its top seven but they were 126 points away from the top-two at regionals in 2015 and they will be hard-pressed to close that gap in 2016. 4. Jenks OK. This is the only non-Texas team with a legitimate chance to break up the Texas party. The four-time defending Oklahoma large school champions return their top five runners from a team that was highly regarded in last's year's rankings. The team did not attend the NXN South in 2015, but this could be the year to challenge. 5. Flower Mound TX. This team finished third in the Texas 6A meet and also at NXN South. This group has the potential to move up in the rankings. It is just below College Park and dead even with Jenks. Watch list:
The South Girls
By Adam Kopet Texas maintains its stranglehold on the South Region. Of all the teams listed below, only one of the watch list teams is from outside of Texas (Bentonville AR) and all ranked teams are from Class 6A in Texas. This year's preseason rankings find teams that have not featured as highly in recent years as many of last year's top teams were hit hard by graduation. Marcus TX, last year's Texas 6A champions, have completely fallen outside the top five. At the top are Keller TX and Smithson Valley TX, both of which return prominently and are early favorites to earn berths to Portland. It should be noted that state meet and NXN South regional marks had to be largely ignored in these rankings. Both meets last year slowed heavily by rain and mud. While those are regular parts of cross country, they make race analysis more challenging, as extreme conditions are more likely to create outlier performances.
1. Keller TX: The Indians return everyone from last year's third place team at the Texas 6A state meet. They went on to finish fourth at the South Regional. Abbey Santoro led the team last year with an individual third place finish at state. 2. Smithson Valley TX: The Rangers return four of their top five varsity runners from the Texas 6A state meet last year where they finished seventh. They are led by the trio of sophomore Cambria Clark and juniors Kylie Welch and Kerri Welch, who have shown the capability of finishing high at the state meet. 3. The Woodlands TX: The Highlanders struggled toward the end of last season, but they return their entire varsity seven. The added experience will make The Woodlands a tough team to beat. They are led by senior Lourdes Vivas, who finished 10th at the Texas 6A state meet. 4. Southlake Carroll TX: The Dragons were hit hard by graduation, but they are a deep team with the ability to reload rather than rebuild. It will be a tall task for the South Regional Champions to repeat, but it is not outside the realm of possibility for one of the perennial top teams in Texas. 5. Hebron TX: The Hawks lost their No. 1 runner to graduation, but they return the rest of the team that finished fifth at both the Texas 6A state meet and the South Regional. They are led by junior Abby Riordan, who finished eighth at the 2015 state meet. Watch list:
The Road to Portland and the Introduction of the 2016 Dyestat Nike Regional Rankings. The DyeStat regional rankings offer a glimpse of who we think has the best chance to qualify for Nike Cross Nationals in Portland, Ore. on Dec. 3. As such, the "regions" are established by the nine areas created by Nike for their qualifying purposes. There have been slight variations to this configuration over time but since 2008 they have remained consistent: New York, given its dominance in the sport over the years, is a region unto itself. California, given its massive population and success, is also a region and its qualifiers come from a power merge at the conclusion of the CIF state championships. The rest of the country is divided into 7 areas: Southeast: Delaware, Maryland, Virgina, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and District of Columbia. South: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas and Mississippi. Heartland: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Midwest: Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Missouri. Northeast: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island and New Hampshire. Southwest: Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada. Northwest: Wyoming, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Alaska and Hawaii. These regional meets are open to any high schools from its corresponding states. If there is high demand, selectors ensure that the top teams are guaranteed a spot in the championship race. The top 2 teams in each of the eight regions and the top 2 teams from the California merge all automatically qualify for NXN. Nike also invites the top five individuals from the nine regions. In addition to the automatic qualifiers, a committee selects the next four deserving teams in the nation, bringing the total of participating teams to 22 each year. Every two weeks on Dyestat, Paul Schmitz (boys) and Adam Kopet (girls) will examine each region and make predictions about which teams are most likely to auto qualify for NXN. It is a big country to cover and we welcome your feedback. DyeStatCal editor Erik Boal handles the California rankings. |
